Eight leading indicators, updated live on every page load. Color-coded so you can see the macro picture at a glance.
Risk Score
.../8
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Overall Recession Probability...%
Clear
Watch
Warning
Crisis
... Normal
... Watch
... Warning
Signal key:
Normal
Watch, deteriorating
Warning, historically recessionary
// Eight Live Indicators
Yield Curve
?Gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. When negative (inverted), it has predicted every recession since 1955. When it re-steepens after an inversion, the recession typically arrives within months.
10Y minus 2Y Spread via US Treasury
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2-Year
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10-Year
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Spread
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Fetching from FRED...
VIX Fear Index
?Measures expected market volatility over 30 days. Below 20 is calm. Above 30 is fear. Above 40 is panic. Tracked via UVXY, a volatility ETF.
Volatility ETF via Finnhub
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Calm (<20)Fear (>30)Panic (>40)
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Jobless Claims
?Weekly new unemployment filings. Below 250K is healthy. Above 300K signals alarm. Labor markets are a lagging indicator. They break last.
DOL Initial Claims via FRED
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Healthy (<250K)Danger (>300K)
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High-Yield Spreads
?The premium junk bonds pay over Treasuries. Below 4% is calm. Above 5% signals stress. Above 8% is crisis level. Widening spreads mean investors are pricing in defaults.
ICE BofA HY OAS via FRED
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Calm (<4%)Stress (>5%)Crisis (>8%)
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S&P 500 vs 200-Day MA
?When the S&P 500 drops below its 200-day moving average, it confirms a long-term downtrend. A sustained breakdown is one of the clearest bear market signals. Tracked via SPY ETF.
SPY ETF via Finnhub
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SPY Price
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200-Day MA
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Gap
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Dr. Copper
?Copper is in everything: buildings, EVs, electronics. It is a real-time barometer for global industrial demand. Tracked via CPER ETF.
Copper ETF (CPER) via Finnhub
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USD
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Brent Crude Oil
?The global oil benchmark. High oil prices feed inflation and squeeze consumer spending. This is a key driver of stagflation risk. Tracked via BNO ETF.
Brent Oil ETF (BNO) via Finnhub
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Buffett Indicator
?Total US stock market cap divided by GDP. Buffett called it the best single measure of market valuation. The Wilshire 5000 data was removed from FRED in 2024, so this uses the Fed's equity liability proxy. Reference: gurufocus.com shows ~210% as of March 2026.